For a time, Caf appeared to be progressive.
The confederation employed a qualifying
system which required the continent's
minnows to qualify among themselves just
for the right to compete against Africa's big
boys in the group stage.
It's an approach that has its merits.
Indeed, every time the likes of Spain,
England or Germany crush sides such
as Gibraltar, San Marino or Andorra in Uefa
qualifying, a section of the media, of fans,
always argues for preliminary qualifiers for
the continent's lesser sides. Admittedly, my
beloved Three Lions don't do too much
'crushing' all that often...but you get the
point.
Africa appeared to have got this right. The
likes of Mauritius and the Sao Tome e
Principe had already fallen before the group
stage of the 2015 Nations Cup qualifiers,
meaning the group stages were much more
competitive.
Almost every group had a handful of high-
profile clashes and exciting encounters and,
with two teams progressing from each, the
big dogs could generally get away with a
slip up or two.
On one hand, while there is, in principle, less
margin for error in groups where only the
top teams qualify (and the best two
runners-up), the presence of so many
minnows means that Africa's strongest
sides ought to have little trouble in
advancing.
Unless, of course, they have one other
strong team in their group.
During qualification for the last Afcon, for
example, the difficulty of the groups ought
to have been measured on the quality
between the second and third-best teams in
the pool. Now, though, with only the top
teams guaranteed a spot in the tournament
proper, it is the margin between the two
best teams which is the critical factor.
Losers: Sierra Leone & Sudan – The
Damned Nations
Without a doubt, the two big losers (and I
mean big losers) of the Afcon qualifying
draw are Sudan and Sierra Leone, who may
as well almost write this tournament off
before it's begun.
First of all, the two drawn in the best group
(in terms of overall quality of the four teams
based on Fifa rankings). The worst team in
the group, Sudan, are 31st in the current
rankings (admittedly a flawed measure), had
they been in Group K, Senegal's group, they
would have been the second-best team.
With margins so fine, that surely is
something Caf has to look at.
Secondly, the two have been mighty
unfortunate in not only being drawn with
holders Cote d'Ivoire, but also with new
hosts Gabon (a story for a rainy day).
Caf, copying Uefa's new method, insist that
hosts compete in the qualifying programme
but that there results are not counted
towards the final standing. In Group I, even
the team finishing in second-place will not
advance to the tournament.
These two were essentially eliminated when
the draw was made—a great shame
considering their status as two of the
continent's improving, promising nations.
Winners: Senegal and Algeria – An Easy
Ride
The Lions of Teranga, by contrast, find
themselves in Group K. As mentioned above,
it is very much the Group of Life...for them, at
least.
Having struggled to qualify for recent
tournaments after finding themselves
drawn in tough groups, the West Africans
may consider this to be karma.
In their group there is the joint-biggest gap
in classement between the best team in the
group (Senegal, fifth in the rankings) and
the second-best (Namibia down in 33rd).
That's a distance of 27 places.
It's a similar story for Algeria, who remain
the best-ranked team in the Fifa rankings.
They may consider the greatest threat in the
group to the Ethiopia—ranked 28th in the
continent. The Walias are a tricky side with a
smattering of skill, but having taken only
four points from their Afcon '15 qualifying
group—losing home and away in the
process—I would be stunned if they proved
to be genuine challengers to Les Fennecs.
Losers: Nigeria, Egypt, Cameroon and
South Africa
These four giants may have 15 African
crowns between them (as much as the rest
of the continent's sides put together) but it
appears very unlikely that all four will be
present at the 2017 showpiece.
Nigeria and Egypt have been drawn
together in Group G, while Cameroon and
South Africa find themselves pooled
together in Group M.
The situation is perhaps slightly more
comforting for the Indomitable Lions and
Bafana Bafana, as their group Is padded out
by Mauritania (36 in Africa) and the Gambia
(45 in Africa)—both heavyweights will be
confident of picking up maximum points
against these two, which should put them
right in the running for the best second-
placed team should they fail to top the
group.
Tanzania and Chad, the two teams that
populate Nigeria/Egypt's group may not be
markedly weaker than Mauritania/the
Gambia (although they are lower in the
rankings), but considering the recent
failings of the two giants, the chances of
them picking up maximum points against
the smaller teams is much lower.
It's hard to envisage either of the two big
dogs in that group accruing enough points
against the smaller teams to amass enough
points to qualify in second. Only first may do
for the Super Eagles and the Pharaohs.